Which Presidential Candidates Have Defeated Incumbents?
There are many Democrats preparing to run against President Trump in 2020, with the field already larger than it has been in decades. When going up against an incumbent President, it is worthwhile to consider: has a candidate defeated an incumbent in the past?
Many of the candidates running have in fact defeated an incumbent, usually early in their career. It is worth recalling the circumstances of these races, to perhaps shed some light on a potential nominee's political chops:
Vice President Joe Biden - Biden defeated Republican Senator J. Caleb Boggs in 1972. Boggs was running for a third term, and was considered enough of a favorite that no prominent Democrats ran against him. Biden served on the New Castle County Council at the time. He won 50% to 49%.
Senator Cory Booker - Booker first came to prominence in a losing race against incumbent Newark mayor Sharpe James in 2002; but he was first positioned to run that race by defeating Councilor George Branch in the Central Ward of the city in 1998. Booker received 55% of the vote in the runoff election after a grassroots campaign where he was opposed by the Mayor.
Congressman John Delaney - Delaney defeated Republican Congressman Roscoe Bartlett in Maryland's 6th district in 2012. Bartlett, a long-serving Congressman, had his rural district redrawn to include suburbs of Washington. The former CEO Delaney won with 59% of the vote, with much of his margin of victory coming from Montgomery County.
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand - Gillibrand defeated Republican Congressman John Sweeney in New York's 20th District in 2006, as part of the Democratic takeover of Congress that year. The upstate district was made up of a ring of rural and suburban areas around Albany. She won 53% to 47% against the scandal-plagued incumbent.
Senator Kamala Harris - Harris was elected to her first office, San Francisco District Attorney, by defeating incumbent DA Terence Hallinan in 2003. Harris was a former prosecutor and city employee at the time; facing the incumbent, considered progressive but inept, and Bill Fazio, a more moderate former prosecutor who had run the previous cycle. The initial election brought Hallinan 35%, Harris 34%, and Fazio 31%. Harris prevailed in the runoff with 56%.
Governor Jay Inslee - Jay Inslee served as a state legislator starting in the late 80s, and was first elected to Congress in 1992. He lost re-election in 1994, then proceeded to lose a campaign for Governor in 1996. In 1998, however, he was returned to Congress in a Seattle-based district, defeating Congressman Rick White. Inslee, the only Democrat to run, received 49%, and White received 44%. Inslee served in Congress until being elected Governor of Washington in 2012.
Congressman Beto O'Rourke - Beto's political career has been defined by challenges to incumbents. He was first elected to the El Paso City Council in 2005 by defeating incumbent Anthony Cobos in the (south-west) District 8. O'Rourke was proprietor of a web development company at the time, and won with 56% of the vote. In 2012, he ran against Congressman Silvestre Reyes in the Democratic primary for Texas's 16th district. Running mostly to the Congressman's left, O'Rourke won with 50% to Reyes' 44%, narrowly avoiding a runoff. Finally, he ran against Republican Senator Ted Cruz in 2018, losing with 48% of the vote.
Senator Bernie Sanders - Sanders has had a long career as Vermont's independent, socialist Senator. He began his political career in the 1970s, losing quixotic campaigns as the nominee of the Liberty Union party for various statewide offices. He was eventually convinced to pursue the more attainable goal of Mayor of Burlington, and ran as the progressive, anti-development alternative to incumbent Democratic mayor Gordon Paquette in 1981. This was a four-way race, and Sanders defeated the five-term mayor by 10 votes. Sanders parleyed this success into a winning Congressional campaign in 1990, defeating first-term incumbent Peter Smith by 56% to 39%. Two years earlier, Smith had defeated Sanders 41% to 38%, but in the second race the Democrats coalesced around Sanders and their own nominee received negligible support.
Senator Elizabeth Warren - Warren, a Harvard Professor and prominent financial regulation activist, defeated Republican Senator Scott Brown in 2012. Brown had been elected to Massachusetts' Senate Seat in an upset in a 2010 special election, defeating Attorney General Martha Coakley. Warren, with support from the activist and the establishment wings of the party, managed to clear the primary field of minor candidates shortly after entering. After a hard-fought campaign, she won with 54% of the vote.